Bitcoin Price Forecast: Is BTC Going To $60k or $48k As LTH Supply In Loss Shrinks?

Bitcoin price forecast logo + chart

Bitcoin price forecast: BTC, the king of crypto, is facing a crucial period as various factors shape its prospects in the short and long term. Bitcoin ETFs sparked mixed responses in January, but its 25% rally in February signals a strong uptrend, especially after the April halving.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: What’s Next If $52,000 Level Holds?

Short-term analysis shows that Bitcoin’s position at $52,000 is playing a crucial role with resistance cut out at $52,800. The four-hour candle close below this level ($52,000) on Monday implied that sellers cannot be underestimated. With another close below it, larger dips will start to become apparent, bringing the traders’ attention to support at $48,000.

The founder and CEO of MN Trading Consultancy, Michaรซl van de Poppe backed this sentiment via a post on X suggesting that he is “still leaning towards this scenario in which a flush on the downside seems likely.”

In his forecast, Poppe argues that $48,500 – $49.500 is the range to watch. While such a flush drop might not sit well with people already moving with the momentum of a pre-halving rally, recent market behavior, has revealed that dips could be eaten up quickly, with Bitcoin propped to resume the uptrend after collecting fresh liquidity.

A successful retest of the upper range resistance, as highlighted with the grey rectangle on the four-hour chart, would support further upward movement, Rekt Capital, a trader and analyst opined.

An incoming buy signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) would be another signal for the uptrend’s continuation. This call to buy BTC would manifest with the blue MACD line crossing above the red signal line.

The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) closely trailing the price can be used to back the bullish theory. In case of a correction below $52,000, Bitcoin price will have a chance to stabilize ahead of another rebound.

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Bitcoin price forecast chart | Tradingview
Bitcoin price forecast chart

Long-Term Holder Supply Held In Loss Falls Drastically

The uptick in the price of Bitcoin since Q4 last year has continued to turn BTC holdings profitable. According to Glassnode, a blockchain data analytics firm, Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply held in loss has reduced to only 778.8k BTC, representing 6.5% of the supply in the cohort. The last when LTH supply was at this threshold was in the early stages of the bull market conditions of 2019.

Bitcoin holders in profit are supporting the bullish trend, according to IntoTheBlock’s blockchain data. The chart below shows two key support zones: $46,582-$48,200, where 1.2 million addresses bought 567k BTC at $47,460 on average, and $51,368-$52,919, where 996k addresses bought 555k BTC at $51,932 on average.

Bitcoin IOMAP chart | IntoTheBlock
Bitcoin IOMAP chart

On the other hand, resistance levels are not as strong as the support zones. If Bitcoin price continues to rise this week, it could end February closer to $60,000 than to $48,000.

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